Introduction

The period of engineering bachelor's, master's and doctoral degree growth is coming to an end. As shown in the graph below, the rate of bachelor's degree growth began to decline in AY2003-04; a decline in the master's degree growth rate occurred in AY2004-05.

The onset of these new trends was presaged by enrollment data. The very marked decline in employer demand for undergraduate engineers in 2000 resulted in the predictable decline in first-year enrollments following the maximum in Fall 2002. Total full-time enrollments reached a maximum in Fall 2003 after increasing 21.6% since the minimum in Fall 1996 and declined 0.9% in Fall 2004. Further full-time enrollment declines should be anticipated and decreases in bachelor's degrees could begin as soon as AY2005-06.

Both master's and doctoral degrees reached record levels in AY2004-05. Master's degrees have been setting new records annually since AY2002-03. Doctoral degrees exceeded the record set in AY1696-97. The slow growth of master's degrees in AY2004-05 was foreseen by the 7.4% decline in full-time enrollments in Fall 2004 following the maximum in Fall 2003. Although strong growth in doctoral degrees continues, full-time enrollments grew only 3.9% in Fall 2004 following growth of 7.7%, 14.6% and 12.6% in the Fall of 2001, 2002 and 2003, respectively.

Master's degrees should begin to decline in AY2005-06 or AY2006-07 at the latest. Doctoral degrees should continue to increase for only about two more years.

The remainder of this report analyzes the undergraduate degree trends in twenty-two individual engineering disciplines. An analysis of master's and doctoral degree trends will be presented in a subsequent report to be available in the Spring 2006.

Bachelor's Degree Trends in Individual Engineering Disciplines

The following twenty-two engineering disciplines were included in this study:

Bioengineering and biomedical engineering data were obtained by subdividing data submitted by universities as "BIO" by the program names that were included. Likewise, computer engineering, computer science and computer science and engineering data were subdivided via program names for data submitted as "CMP". The CMP data are for programs in universities with engineering colleges. Engineering Trends believes that the data for these five programs are appearing for the first time in this report.

The degree data for these twenty-two engineering disciplines are shown in the two graphs below for the period since AY1975-76. Clearly, the individual disciplines exhibit degree trends that do not mirror that of engineering as a whole.

Undergraduate degree growth continues in aeronautical engineering (since AY1998-99), civil engineering (since AY2001-02), electrical engineering (since AY1998-99), mechanical engineering (since AY2000-01), engineering management (since AY1993-94), marine engineering (since AY2000-01) and nuclear engineering (since AY2000-01). Significant and sustained long-term growth continues in bioengineering and biomedical engineering.

Degree declines are evident for chemical engineering (since AY1996-97), agricultural engineering (since AY1994-95) and mining, geological and minerals engineering (since AY1998-99). Systems engineering degrees appear to be declining since AY2003-04, but the statistical scatter is large.

Following several years of undergraduate enrollment decline, it is not unexpected that decreasing numbers of degrees are now being awarded in computer engineering, computer science (in universities with engineering colleges) and computer science and engineering. With full-time undergraduate enrollments in these three disciplines declining 18.5% through Fall 2004 from the maximum in Fall 2001 (and the rate of decline is increasing), it should be expected that degree declines will continue (and accelerate) in the near term. It is somewhat ironic that the "computer disciplines" accounted for 71% of the overall growth in total engineering bachelor's degrees from the minimum in AY1998-99 through AY 2003-04. Now, these disciplines are beginning to undergo substantial degree declines.

And there are disciplines that are "essentially stable" in regard to undergraduate degree trends. These include industrial engineering, petroleum engineering, materials science and engineering, architectural engineering, manufacturing engineering and environmental engineering (since AY2000-01).

Conclusions

Growth in the total number of engineering bachelor's degrees awarded annually in the US since the minimum in AY1998-99 has essentially ceased and a period of decline should be anticipated based upon enrollment data. Degree trends in the twenty-two individual engineering disciplines that were studied depart significantly from the overall engineering trend. Nine disciplines are currently undergoing degree growth (substantial growth for some). Seven are currently declining (substantially, for some). Of the remaining six, five have not exhibited significant long-term degree growth or decline.

Acknowledgments

The undergraduate enrollment and degree data used in this study originated from the annual surveys of the Engineering Workforce Commission of the American Association of Engineering Societies. Engineering Trends acknowledges the efforts of this organization in providing credible data and expresses its gratitude for their services to the engineering profession. Persons seeking further information about their surveys and the availability of survey data should visit the AAES Web site (www.aaes.org).

Footnote

Engineering Trends data are compiled mainly from information submitted by universities to the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the very rare occasions where errors in data appear, Engineering Trends corrects the error, if possible, or deletes the data if the error is large enough to alter significantly the trend of the university or the US total.