Undergraduate and graduate degrees have now departed from the robust growth trends seen just a few years ago. The latest data (AY2006-07) indicate that bachelor's and master's degrees continue to decline and the rate of growth of doctoral degrees has declined slightly from the rapid growth than began five years ago. The data are presented in the three graphs below.

We turn to enrollment data to gain insight to near term (two to four years) degree predictions. The graph below provides full-time undergraduate enrollments for first-year through fourth-year students. First-year enrollments, unlike those for later years, indicate than the prior declining trend ceased in fall 2006. Thus, the decline in engineering bachelor's degrees should continue for only about three or four more years, assuming that first-year enrollments increase in fall 2007. Master's degree enrollments increased in fall 2006 after two years of decline; master's degrees should begin to increase in AY2008-09. Doctoral enrollments continue to increase slowly; doctoral degree growth should continue to slow for several more years.

This report shows that degree trends in individual engineering disciplines can depart significantly from those of engineering as a whole. Fourteen disciplines were studied; aeronautical and astronautical engineering were included in "aerospace", bioengineering and biomedical engineering were combined into "biological" and computer engineering and computer science were combined into "computer".

Bachelor's Degree Trends in Engineering Disciplines

The two graphs below show the degree trends of the fourteen engineering disciplines since AY1980-81. Among the larger disciplines, biological, civil and mechanical engineering show significant, prolonged growth trends, computer and electrical show recent declining trends.

For the smaller disciplines, aerospace, nuclear, petroleum and, most recently, mining/geological engineering are growing. Within the limits of scatter in the data, none of these smaller disciplines exhibits declining bachelor's degrees.

Enrollments as shown in the next two graphs provide insights to future trends in bachelor's degrees in the fourteen engineering disciplines included in this study. The graph below for the larger disciplines shows that both computer and electrical engineering enrollments have continued to decline. Thus, bachelor's degree declines will continue; these declines will end approximately two years after enrollments begin to increase. Civil engineering undergraduate enrollments have continued to increase since fall 2001, albeit at a declining rate in fall 2006. Civil engineering bachelor's degree growth should be expected to continue for at least four to five years. Mechanical engineering enrollments declined in fall 2006 after a period of growth beginning in fall 2002. Growth in mechanical engineering bachelor's degrees that began in AY2001-02 should reach a maximum in about two years. Biological, chemical and industrial engineering enrollments have been almost constant for three to four years. Biological degree growth should decline and chemical and industrial engineering degrees should remain constant for the next few years.

Undergraduate enrollments in the smaller disciplines shown in the graph below show a continuously increasing trend for petroleum engineering and continuously decreasing trend for systems engineering. Petroleum engineering degrees should continue their increasing trend that began in AY2004-05 for at least three more years. Systems engineering bachelor's degrees should begin to decrease. Essentially constant enrollments for the other five smaller disciplines indicate that growth rates of aerospace, mining/geological and nuclear engineering bachelor's degrees should begin to diminish and bachelor's degrees in environmental and materials engineering should remain constant over the next few years.

Master's Degree Trends in Engineering Disciplines

The master's degree trends for the fourteen disciplines studied are shown in the two graphs below. Most of the disciplines mirror the recent decline in master's degrees awarded in all of engineering. Even biological engineering that has shown almost continuous growth over the past quarter century experienced a very slight decline in master's degrees in AY2006-07. Materials and petroleum engineering on the other hand continue to maintain a constant output of master's degrees and aerospace engineering appears to have joined them in that regard. Master's degree data for mining/geological and nuclear engineering appear to show new trends beginning in AY2006-07.

The third and fourth graphs below provide master's degree enrollment data for the fourteen disciplines. Essentially all of the enrollments shown exhibit only slight upward or downward trends in recent years. Thus, master's degree trends in the near future should also be slight. Enrollment increases in fall 2006 in computer, electrical, mechanical, nuclear and systems engineering could offset some of the downward degree trends in these disciplines in the near future. On the other hand, the enrollment declines in biological (in both fall 2005 and fall 2006), chemical, industrial, materials, mining/geological and petroleum engineering should be expected to continue the downward degree trends in these disciplines or initiate new downward trends.

Doctoral Degree Trends in Engineering Disciplines

Trends for doctoral degrees in the fourteen disciplines studied are shown in the two graphs below. Many of these disciplines exhibit growth over the last five years or so, but the doctoral degrees reported for AY2006-07 indicate some softening in these trends. Declining growth rates are indicated for computer, electrical and materials engineering, constant numbers of degrees are shown for environmental, mining/geological, petroleum and systems engineering and declining numbers of degrees are apparent for aerospace, mechanical and nuclear engineering. Biological, chemical, civil and industrial engineering doctoral degrees maintained prior growth trends in AY2006-07.

The doctoral enrollment data for the fourteen disciplines are shown in the second and third graphs below and provide insight to the degree trends in the near future. Increasing enrollment trends are currently indicated for aerospace, biological, materials, nuclear, civil, environmental and mechanical engineering, with the increases for the last three being very slight. Increasing degree trends for biological and civil engineering should continue in the next three to four years. The increasing enrollments in aerospace, materials, mechanical and nuclear engineering should provide for continuing increases in doctoral degrees, but with growth rates lower than in the past. Constant enrollments in chemical, computer, electrical and industrial engineering will probably result in reduced, but still positive, degree growth in these disciplines. Decreases in doctoral enrollments in mining/geological, petroleum and systems engineering should lead to doctoral degree declines in the next three to four years in these disciplines.

Summary

Bachelor's, master's and doctoral degree trends were reported for engineering and fourteen engineering disciplines for the period AY1980-81 through AY2006-07, the latest year for which data are available. The study included aerospace (including aeronautical and astronautical), biological (bioengineering plus biomedical), chemical, civil, computer (science plus engineering), electrical, environmental, industrial, materials, mechanical, mining (including geological), nuclear, petroleum and systems engineering. Enrollment data for both engineering as a whole and for the individual engineering disciplines were used to make predictions on degree trends in the near term (two to four years).

The number of bachelor's degrees awarded in engineering declined slowly in both AY2005-06 and AY2006-07. Increases in undergraduate enrollment occurred in first-year students in fall 2006; second-, third- and fourth-year enrollments declined. Thus, slowly declining degrees should continue for three or four more years. Engineering master's degrees declined significantly in AY2005-06 and AY2006-07 and master's enrollments increased in fall 2006 after declines in the two prior years. Master's degrees should begin to increase again in AY2008-09. Doctoral enrollment increases in the last three years have been significantly lower than in prior years. A reduced rate of doctoral degree growth should begin next year and continue for at least three more years.

Slowly increasing undergraduate enrollments in civil engineering should sustain the past growth trend of bachelor's degrees. The continuing decline of undergraduate enrollments in computer and electrical engineering should continue the past declines in bachelor's degrees in these disciplines. Undergraduate enrollments in mechanical engineering declined in fall 2006 and should begin to influence bachelor's degree in two years. The continuous growth of bachelor's degrees in biological engineering in past years will be influenced in about two years by the lack of growth in undergraduate enrollments in fall 2006.

Significant doctoral degree growth will continue for at least the next three or four years in biological engineering due to significant growth in enrollments. Civil engineering doctorates will also continue to increase for at least three to four years due to slow, but steady, increases in enrollments. Doctoral degree growth rates in chemical, computer, electrical and mechanical engineering will begin to slow in about two to three years since their respective doctoral enrollments remained essentially constant in fall 2006.

Acknowledgments

The degree data used in this study originated from the annual surveys of the Engineering Workforce Commission of the American Association of Engineering Societies. Engineering Trends acknowledges the efforts of this organization in providing credible data and expresses its gratitude for their services to the engineering profession. Persons seeking further information about their surveys and the availability of survey data should visit the EWC Web site (www.aaes.org).

Footnote

Engineering Trends data are compiled mainly from information submitted by universities to the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the very rare occasions where errors in data appear, Engineering Trends corrects the error, if possible, or deletes the data if the error is large enough to alter significantly the trend of the university or the US total.