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Introduction
Undergraduate and graduate degrees
have now departed from the robust
growth trends seen just a few years
ago. The latest data (AY2006-07)
indicate that bachelor's and
master's degrees continue to decline
and the rate of growth of doctoral
degrees has declined slightly from
the rapid growth than began five
years ago. The data are presented in
the three graphs below.



We turn to enrollment data to gain
insight to near term (two to four
years) degree predictions. The graph
below provides full-time
undergraduate enrollments for
first-year through fourth-year
students. First-year enrollments,
unlike those for later years,
indicate than the prior declining
trend ceased in fall 2006. Thus, the
decline in engineering bachelor's
degrees should continue for only
about three or four more years,
assuming that first-year enrollments
increase in fall 2007. Master's
degree enrollments increased in fall
2006 after two years of decline;
master's degrees should begin to
increase in AY2008-09. Doctoral
enrollments continue to increase
slowly; doctoral degree growth
should continue to slow for several
more years.
This report shows that degree trends
in individual engineering
disciplines can depart significantly
from those of engineering as a
whole. Fourteen disciplines were
studied; aeronautical and
astronautical engineering were
included in "aerospace",
bioengineering and biomedical
engineering were combined into
"biological" and computer
engineering and computer science
were combined into "computer".

Bachelor's Degree Trends in
Engineering Disciplines
The two graphs below show the degree
trends of the fourteen engineering
disciplines since AY1980-81. Among
the larger disciplines, biological,
civil and mechanical engineering
show significant, prolonged growth
trends, computer and electrical show
recent declining trends.


For the smaller disciplines,
aerospace, nuclear, petroleum and,
most recently, mining/geological
engineering are growing. Within the
limits of scatter in the data, none
of these smaller disciplines
exhibits declining bachelor's
degrees.
Enrollments as shown in the next two
graphs provide insights to future
trends in bachelor's degrees in the
fourteen engineering disciplines
included in this study. The graph
below for the larger disciplines
shows that both computer and
electrical engineering enrollments
have continued to decline. Thus,
bachelor's degree declines will
continue; these declines will end
approximately two years after
enrollments begin to increase. Civil
engineering undergraduate
enrollments have continued to
increase since fall 2001, albeit at
a declining rate in fall 2006. Civil
engineering bachelor's degree growth
should be expected to continue for
at least four to five years.
Mechanical engineering enrollments
declined in fall 2006 after a period
of growth beginning in fall 2002.
Growth in mechanical engineering
bachelor's degrees that began in
AY2001-02 should reach a maximum in
about two years. Biological,
chemical and industrial engineering
enrollments have been almost
constant for three to four years.
Biological degree growth should
decline and chemical and industrial
engineering degrees should remain
constant for the next few years.

Undergraduate enrollments in the
smaller disciplines shown in the
graph below show a continuously
increasing trend for petroleum
engineering and continuously
decreasing trend for systems
engineering. Petroleum engineering
degrees should continue their
increasing trend that began in
AY2004-05 for at least three more
years. Systems engineering
bachelor's degrees should begin to
decrease. Essentially constant
enrollments for the other five
smaller disciplines indicate that
growth rates of aerospace,
mining/geological and nuclear
engineering bachelor's degrees
should begin to diminish and
bachelor's degrees in environmental
and materials engineering should
remain constant over the next few
years.

Master's Degree Trends in
Engineering Disciplines
The master's degree trends for the
fourteen disciplines studied are
shown in the two graphs below. Most
of the disciplines mirror the recent
decline in master's degrees awarded
in all of engineering. Even
biological engineering that has
shown almost continuous growth over
the past quarter century experienced
a very slight decline in master's
degrees in AY2006-07. Materials and
petroleum engineering on the other
hand continue to maintain a constant
output of master's degrees and
aerospace engineering appears to
have joined them in that regard.
Master's degree data for
mining/geological and nuclear
engineering appear to show new
trends beginning in AY2006-07.
The third and fourth graphs below
provide master's degree enrollment
data for the fourteen disciplines.
Essentially all of the enrollments
shown exhibit only slight upward or
downward trends in recent years.
Thus, master's degree trends in the
near future should also be slight.
Enrollment increases in fall 2006 in
computer, electrical, mechanical,
nuclear and systems engineering
could offset some of the downward
degree trends in these disciplines
in the near future. On the other
hand, the enrollment declines in
biological (in both fall 2005 and
fall 2006), chemical, industrial,
materials, mining/geological and
petroleum engineering should be
expected to continue the downward
degree trends in these disciplines
or initiate new downward trends.




Doctoral Degree Trends in
Engineering Disciplines
Trends for doctoral degrees in the
fourteen disciplines studied are
shown in the two graphs below. Many
of these disciplines exhibit growth
over the last five years or so, but
the doctoral degrees reported for
AY2006-07 indicate some softening in
these trends. Declining growth rates
are indicated for computer,
electrical and materials
engineering, constant numbers of
degrees are shown for environmental,
mining/geological, petroleum and
systems engineering and declining
numbers of degrees are apparent for
aerospace, mechanical and nuclear
engineering. Biological, chemical,
civil and industrial engineering
doctoral degrees maintained prior
growth trends in AY2006-07.

The doctoral enrollment data for the
fourteen disciplines are shown in
the second and third graphs below
and provide insight to the degree
trends in the near future.
Increasing enrollment trends are
currently indicated for aerospace,
biological, materials, nuclear,
civil, environmental and mechanical
engineering, with the increases for
the last three being very slight.
Increasing degree trends for
biological and civil engineering
should continue in the next three to
four years. The increasing
enrollments in aerospace, materials,
mechanical and nuclear engineering
should provide for continuing
increases in doctoral degrees, but
with growth rates lower than in the
past. Constant enrollments in
chemical, computer, electrical and
industrial engineering will probably
result in reduced, but still
positive, degree growth in these
disciplines. Decreases in doctoral
enrollments in mining/geological,
petroleum and systems engineering
should lead to doctoral degree
declines in the next three to four
years in these disciplines.



Summary
Bachelor's, master's and doctoral
degree trends were reported for
engineering and fourteen engineering
disciplines for the period AY1980-81
through AY2006-07, the latest year
for which data are available. The
study included aerospace (including
aeronautical and astronautical),
biological (bioengineering plus
biomedical), chemical, civil,
computer (science plus engineering),
electrical, environmental,
industrial, materials, mechanical,
mining (including geological),
nuclear, petroleum and systems
engineering. Enrollment data for
both engineering as a whole and for
the individual engineering
disciplines were used to make
predictions on degree trends in the
near term (two to four years).
The number of bachelor's degrees
awarded in engineering declined
slowly in both AY2005-06 and
AY2006-07. Increases in
undergraduate enrollment occurred in
first-year students in fall 2006;
second-, third- and fourth-year
enrollments declined. Thus, slowly
declining degrees should continue
for three or four more years.
Engineering master's degrees
declined significantly in AY2005-06
and AY2006-07 and master's
enrollments increased in fall 2006
after declines in the two prior
years. Master's degrees should begin
to increase again in AY2008-09.
Doctoral enrollment increases in the
last three years have been
significantly lower than in prior
years. A reduced rate of doctoral
degree growth should begin next year
and continue for at least three more
years.
Slowly increasing undergraduate
enrollments in civil engineering
should sustain the past growth trend
of bachelor's degrees. The
continuing decline of undergraduate
enrollments in computer and
electrical engineering should
continue the past declines in
bachelor's degrees in these
disciplines. Undergraduate
enrollments in mechanical
engineering declined in fall 2006
and should begin to influence
bachelor's degree in two years. The
continuous growth of bachelor's
degrees in biological engineering in
past years will be influenced in
about two years by the lack of
growth in undergraduate enrollments
in fall 2006.
Significant doctoral degree growth
will continue for at least the next
three or four years in biological
engineering due to significant
growth in enrollments. Civil
engineering doctorates will also
continue to increase for at least
three to four years due to slow, but
steady, increases in enrollments.
Doctoral degree growth rates in
chemical, computer, electrical and
mechanical engineering will begin to
slow in about two to three years
since their respective doctoral
enrollments remained essentially
constant in fall 2006.
Acknowledgments
The degree data used in this study
originated from the annual surveys
of the Engineering Workforce
Commission of the American
Association of Engineering
Societies. Engineering Trends
acknowledges the efforts of this
organization in providing credible
data and expresses its gratitude for
their services to the engineering
profession. Persons seeking further
information about their surveys and
the availability of survey data
should visit the EWC Web site (www.aaes.org).
Footnote
Engineering Trends data are compiled
mainly from information submitted by
universities to the annual surveys
of EWC and ASEE. On the very rare
occasions where errors in data
appear, Engineering Trends corrects
the error, if possible, or deletes
the data if the error is large
enough to alter significantly the
trend of the university or the US
total. |