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Introduction
Increasing undergraduate enrollments that began in the mid-1990s
resulted in increasing numbers of bachelor's degrees awarded beginning
in the late 1990s. Degrees and enrollments have continued to increase
through AY2002-03 and Fall 2002, respectively (the most recent data
currently available). Engineering Trends expects this period of degree
growth to end in AY2006-07 since first-year engineering enrollments
experienced a markedly reduced growth rate in Fall 2002 due to the
decrease in demand that began two years earlier. Thus, a maximum in
full-time enrollment should be observed in Fall 2004 and in degrees in
AY2006-07.
This report considers the future trends in bachelor's degrees in
individual engineering disciplines. Total full-time discipline
enrollments were used to predict the trend to AY2004-05; first-year
enrollments were used to extend the degree trend to AY2006-07
Variation in Total Full-Time Enrollment
The graph below shows the rapid growth in full-time engineering
enrollments since the minimum in Fall 1996. This increase followed the
minimum in first-year enrollment in Fall 1994 and preceded the minimum
in bachelor's degrees in AY1998-99.
Arguably, the marked decline in the rate of increase in first-year
enrollments in Fall 2002 indicates a maximum for that year. Thus, a
maximum in total full-time enrollment (and possibly a new record) should
be expected in Fall 2004 and a maximum in the number of bachelor's
degrees (and possibly a new record) should be expected in AY2006-07.
Full-Time Enrollments in Larger Engineering Disciplines Through
Fall 2002 - Insight to Degrees Through AY 2004-05
The graph below shows that full-time enrollment trends differ
significantly among the disciplines. Electrical and mechanical
engineering have both increased very slightly after a minimum in the
mid-1990s. Civil engineering has increased very slightly since a minimum
in the late 1990s. Chemical engineering continues a decline that began
in the mid-1990s. Biological (bioengineering plus biomedical)
engineering continues its long-term growth trend and has had an increase
in growth rate in recent years. Aerospace engineering has grown from the
enrollment minimum in Fall 1996. Full-time enrollment in industrial
engineering has been essentially constant for over a decade.
The "computer" (engineering plus science in engineering colleges)
discipline appears to be undergoing a major trend alteration. Clearly,
"computer" has experienced phenomenal growth during the 1990s. However,
the full-time enrollment in Fall 2002 was the same as in Fall 2001. One
data point does not substantiate a new trend; Fall 2003 enrollment data
will be necessary to resolve whether this is a significantly different
trend.
(The data used in the graphs in this report were obtained from the
Engineering Workforce annual surveys. The survey data from the American
Society for Engineering Education for "computer" in Fall 2001 and Fall
2002 indicated a decline in full-time undergraduate enrollments after a
sustained period of substantial growth.)
These trends in enrollments indicate the degree trends that should be
anticipated through AY2004-05.
First-Year Enrollments in Larger Engineering Disciplines Through
Fall 2002 - Insight to Degrees Through AY 2006-07
The four-year lag between first-year enrollments in Fall 2002 and
bachelor's degrees in AY2006-07 allows an extension of two years to the
trends defined above for various disciplines. The graph below shows an
increasing trend since Fall 2000 for mechanical, aerospace, civil and
biological engineering. Chemical engineering appears to have ceased its
decline. Electrical and industrial engineering have shown little change
in first-year enrollments since Fall 1997. The rapid increase in
first-year enrollments in "computer" appears to have ended and Fall 2002
enrollments have declined significantly.
Overall, degrees in "computer" should begin to decline, possibly
sharply, beginning in AY2004-05 and this trend should continue.
Mechanical, biological and, to a lesser extent, aerospace engineering
degrees should continue to increase through AY2006-07. Electrical and
industrial engineering degrees should remain essentially constant
through AY2006-07. Chemical engineering degrees should reach a minimum
in AY2005-06.
Full-Time Enrollments in Smaller Engineering Disciplines Through
Fall 2002 - Insight to Degrees Through AY 2004-05
The graph below shows a variety of full-time enrollment trends among
nine smaller engineering disciplines. Systems, petroleum and nuclear
engineering have been growing in recent years. Materials science and
engineering, which has had an essentially constant enrollment for almost
two decades, has shown a decline in the last two years. Marine/naval
engineering, which had declining enrollments for about fifteen years,
has shown steady enrollment growth recently. Geological/mining,
management and manufacturing engineering continue to decline.
Environmental engineering has undergone a significant decline since Fall
1995, but had a slight enrollment increase in Fall 2002.
Degrees in systems, petroleum and nuclear engineering should increase
through AY2004-05. Geological/mining, management and manufacturing
engineering should show declining undergraduate degrees during this
period. Degrees in marine/naval engineering are expected to remain
essentially constant through AY2004-05. Predictions through AY2004-05
for materials science and engineering and environmental engineering
based on the graph above cannot be made since new trends may be
developing. More insight to this situation is provided in the next
section of this report.
First-Year Enrollments
in Smaller Engineering Disciplines Through Fall 2002 - Insight to
Degrees Through AY 2006-07
The graph below showing first-year enrollments indicates, via the
trend from Fall 2000 through Fall 2002, the degree trend anticipated for
AY2004-05 through AY2006-07. Petroleum and nuclear engineering both show
slowly increasing first-year enrollments. Systems engineering appears to
be declining in enrollment from the Fall 1999 maximum. Materials science
and engineering enrollments are declining from a maximum in Fall 2000.
Marine/naval engineering enrollments have declined very slowly following
the Fall 2000 maximum. Management and manufacturing engineering continue
to have slowly declining enrollments, as seen in the total full-time
enrollment data. Geological/mining engineering enrollments appear to be
steady. Environmental enrollments may have ceased to decline.
Thus, degrees awarded in the AY2004-05 to AY2006-07 are expected to
increase slowly for petroleum and nuclear engineering. On the other
hand, systems engineering, materials science and engineering,
marine/naval engineering, management engineering and manufacturing
engineering are expected to have slow declines in bachelor's degrees.
Degrees awarded in geological/mining engineering and environmental
engineering should change very little.
Summary of Bachelor's Degree Trends in the Period AY2002-03
Through AY2006-07
Based on the enrollment data presented, Engineering Trends
anticipates continued growth of degrees in mechanical, civil, aerospace,
biological, petroleum and nuclear engineering through AY2006-07. Degrees
in industrial engineering are expected to remain essentially constant
through this period. Electrical engineering degrees will continue to
grow slowly for a few years and then remain constant. Geological/mining
and chemical engineering will continue to decline slowly for a few years
and then become constant.
Decreasing degrees are expected in a number of disciplines in the
period through AY2006-07. Management and manufacturing engineering will
continue their slow decline. Materials science and engineering and
environmental engineering, in spite of their Fall 2002 full-time
enrollment data, should show slowly declining degrees. Systems
engineering is expected to increase for a few years and then enter a
period of degree decline. "Computer" appears to be taking on an entirely
new trend. A period of degree decline is predicted.
Acknowledgment
The bachelor's degree data for this study originated from the annual
surveys of the Engineering Workforce Commission of the American
Association of Engineering Societies. Engineering Trends acknowledges
their efforts in providing credible data and expresses its gratitude for
their services to the engineering profession
Footnotes
Engineering Trends data are compiled mainly from information
submitted by universities to the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the
very rare occasions where errors in data appear, Engineering Trends
corrects the error, if possible, or deletes the data if the error is
large enough to alter significantly the trend of the university or the
US total.
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