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Introduction
Over the years, enrollments of foreign nationals in engineering graduate
programs in the US have increased significantly. In Fall 2002, 52% of
full-time master’s enrollments and 60% of full-time doctoral enrollments
were due to foreign nationals. These fractions have essentially doubled
in the last third of a century. The increases have occurred for a
variety of reasons including the availability of high-quality students
and the availability of funding for their research support.
The declining fraction of US citizens in US engineering graduate
programs is worthy of examination. Certainly, engineering educators
have noted this decline. An initial reaction to the statistical data
might be that bachelor’s degree graduates are losing interest in
graduate study in engineering. Engineering Trends undertook a study to
analyze the nature of the matter.
Our approach was to compare master’s and doctoral enrollments
(full-time) and degrees of US citizens to the number of bachelor’s
degrees awarded in previous years. Lag times of one and three years
were used for master’s enrollments and degrees, respectively, and two
and four years for doctoral enrollments and degrees, respectively. For
example, the number of doctoral degrees awarded to US citizens in a
given year was compared to the number of bachelor’s degrees four years
earlier. This ratio was used as a measure of US citizen interest in
doctoral programs. The study covered the period from AY1970-71 through
AY2002-03.
We admit that the lag times used are somewhat arbitrary. However, the
year-to-year variations in the data indicate that any errors introduced
were small. In addition, the degree and enrollment data used in the
study supported the lag times employed.
Data Used in the
Study
The data used in the study (prior to invoking the lag times) are shown
in the graph below. Closed data points are for degrees; open data
points are for enrollments. The designations “tot” and “fon” define
total and foreign national data, respectively. Data for US citizens
were obtained from the difference between “tot” and “fon” data. The
graph generally supports the selection of the specific lag times used in
the study.
Data for bachelor’s degrees include a small number of foreign
nationals. This choice was considered to be unimportant since the
fraction of foreign nationals awarded engineering bachelor’s degrees was
constant (about 8%) over the period of the study.
The graph below indicates that the variation in bachelor’s degrees
awarded differs from the variations of graduate degrees and enrollments
over the span of this study. Bachelor’s degrees reached a minimum in
AY1975-76, increased rapidly and substantially to a maximum in
AY1985-86, declined to a sustained minimum (AY 1990-91 through 1998-99)
and increased thereafter. Graduate degrees and enrollments increased
from the mid-1970s to reach new
maxima in the early to mid 1990s. After a slight decline, graduate
enrollments increased and have reached record levels beginning in Fall
2000.
Data Analysis
The graph below indicates that there has been no prolonged trend in the
interest of US citizens in graduate study in engineering. Rather, the
data indicate that interest in both master’s and doctoral programs as
measured by enrollment and degree data has been cyclical.
The cyclic behavior for the most part can be correlated with the
variations in bachelor’s degrees. During the 1980s when record numbers
of bachelor’s degrees were awarded, interest in graduate study waned as
shown by the broad minima in all four ratios in the graph above.
Presumably, the high demand for engineering graduates that encouraged
the growth in undergraduate enrollment resulted also in a preference for
seeking employment rather than graduate study following receipt of a
bachelor’s degree.
The declining demand for engineering graduates beginning in the
mid-1980s brought about a decrease in undergraduate degrees. Support
for graduate study continued to increase during this period. The
combination of these two influences resulted in the maxima exhibited by
all four ratios in the early to mid 1990s.
Summary
Ratios of graduate enrollments and degrees for US citizens to bachelor’s
degrees awarded in prior years show no long-term trend in the interest
of US citizens in graduate engineering study. Although this interest
has been cyclic, the maxima in the ratios in the 1970s were similar in
magnitude to those of the early 1990s. Further, the minima in the 1980s
were similar in magnitude to those of the late 1990s.
Acknowledgment
The degree and
enrollment data for this study originated from the annual surveys of the
Engineering Workforce Commission of the American Association of
Engineering Societies. Engineering Trends acknowledges their efforts in
providing credible data and expresses its gratitude for their services
to the engineering profession
Engineering Trends
is pleased to acknowledge the inquiry of Ms. Patricia McDonald, Director
of Communications and Development at Tau Beta Pi Headquarters, which
originated our interest in this matter.
Footnotes
Engineering Trends
data are compiled mainly from information submitted by universities to
the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the very rare occasions where
errors in data appear, Engineering Trends corrects the error, if
possible, or deletes the data if the error is large enough to alter
significantly the trend of the university or the US total.
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