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Introduction
Full-time engineering enrollments at both the undergraduate and graduate
levels continue to increase. Undergraduate full-time enrollments have
increased 21% from the minimum in Fall 1996 through Fall 2003, as shown
in the graph below. First-year enrollments have increased 22% since the
minimum in Fall 1994; this trend has ceased, however, since first-year
enrollments reached a maximum in Fall 2002.
Full-time graduate enrollments in engineering have increased more
rapidly than undergraduate enrollments. As shown in the graph below,
full-time master’s enrollments have increased 47% since the minimum in
Fall 1998 and have set new annual records from Fall 2000 through Fall
2003. Full-time doctoral enrollments have grown 34% since the minimum
in Fall 1997 and have set new annual records from Fall 2001 through Fall
2003.
Through Fall 2001, enrollments of foreign national undergraduate and
graduate students have increased in a manner that parallels engineering
as a whole. This trend appears to have ceased abruptly. Fall 2002 and
Fall 2003 foreign national enrollments show significant departures from
past trends. First-year enrollments are now declining and total
undergraduate enrollments were at Fall 2001 levels in Fall 2003.
Full-time master’s enrollments that increased slightly in Fall 2002
decreased significantly in Fall 2003. Full-time doctoral enrollments
have continued to increase. The latter may exhibit a decline in the
near future as the effect of declining master’s enrollments impacts
doctoral programs.
Fall 2002 Foreign
National Undergraduate Enrollments Compared to Prior Years
The graph below shows the trends in undergraduate enrollments
(first-year, full-time and part-time) through Fall 2003.
In light of the continuing increases in overall undergraduate
engineering enrollments, it is
meaningful to observe the foreign national data relative to engineering
as a whole. The graph above shows the marked decline in the fraction of
foreign national enrollments since Fall 2002.
Fall 2002 Foreign
National Graduate Enrollments Compared to Prior Years
Master’s and doctoral foreign national enrollments were studied in the
manner employed in the undergraduate analysis. The graph below shows
that full-time master’s enrollments increased very little in Fall 2002
and declined substantially in Fall 2003. The Fall 2003 decline had a
substantial effect on the total full-time master’s enrollment. It is
noteworthy that full-time doctoral enrollments continued to increase and
followed the trend of prior years. However, a decline in the future
should be expected.
The relative graduate enrollments (foreign nationals as a fraction of
engineering) are shown in the second graph below. The decline in the
relative full-time master’s enrollment is significant and a slight
decline may be seen in the relative full-time doctoral enrollment.
Over half of the total engineering graduate enrollments in the US are
due to foreign nationals. A sustained decline in foreign national
enrollments will seriously impact graduate engineering education in this
country.
Summary
Fall 2002 and Fall 2003 enrollment data for foreign national
undergraduate and graduate students indicate that a new trend may be
developing. Rather than following the past increasing trends for
foreign students and the current increasing trend for engineering as a
whole, foreign national enrollments are now entering a period of
decline.
Acknowledgment
The degree and enrollment data for this study originated from the annual
surveys of the Engineering Workforce Commission of the American
Association of Engineering Societies. Engineering Trends acknowledges
their efforts in providing credible data and expresses its gratitude for
their services to the engineering profession.
Footnotes
Engineering
Trends data are compiled mainly from information submitted by
universities to the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the very rare
occasions where errors in data appear, Engineering Trends corrects the
error, if possible, or deletes the data if the error is large enough to
alter significantly the trend of the university or the US total.
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