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Introduction
First-year engineering enrollments reached a minimum in Fall 1984 and
increased substantially through Fall 2002. This trend carried over to
total full-time enrollments after about a two-year time lag. Master's
and doctoral full-time enrollments experienced minima in Fall 1998 and
Fall 1997, respectively, and increased significantly thereafter.
Master's enrollments reached new annual records from Fall 2000 through
Fall 2003; new annual doctoral enrollment records have continued from
Fall 2001. The highly unusual period of engineering enrollment growth at
all three degree levels has ended abruptly. This report analyzes the
transition and its consequences.
Undergraduate Enrollments
The graph below shows the variations in total full-time and part-time
engineering enrollments along with first-year enrollments since Fall
1975. First-year enrollments reached a maximum in Fall 2002; full-time
enrollments reached a maximum in Fall 2003, a year earlier than what
would be expected from the normal two-year lag between first-year and
full-time enrollments.
Declining full-time and part-time enrollment trends indicate that
undergraduate degrees will begin to decline in AY2006-07 if not
AY2005-06.
The lag times between the enrollments in the years of undergraduate
engineering education are important in predicting enrollment and degree
trends. The graph below defines the relationship between these
year-to-year transitions.
Graduate Enrollments
Both master's and doctoral engineering enrollments recovered very
well from their minima in the late 1990s as shown in the graph below.
However, master's degree enrollment growth essentially ended in Fall
2002 and declined sharply in Fall 2004. It is somewhat ironic that
engineering master's degrees continued to increase at an unprecedented
rate in AY2003-04 (see the Degrees Since 1945 page on the Engineering
Trends Web site). A sharp decline in engineering master's degrees should
be expected in AY2005-06.
Electrical, industrial and mechanical engineering and "computer"
(engineering plus science) had large master's enrollment declines in
Fall 2004. "Computer" and industrial engineering reached maxima in Fall
2002 and decreased by 1368 and 804 students, respectively, through Fall
2004. Electrical and mechanical engineering reached maxima in Fall 2003
and declined by 2251 and 647, respectively, in Fall 2004. The combined
decreases of these four disciplines from Fall 2002 and Fall 2003 were
4141 and 4623 through Fall 2004, respectively. The declines for
engineering as a whole for these periods were less, 3889 and 4234,
respectively.
Engineering doctoral enrollments have continued to increase through
Fall 2004. However, Fall 2004 enrollment data indicate that the growth
rate is declining. Declining master's enrollments should impact doctoral
enrollments significantly in the next few years.
Summary
Undergraduate full-time engineering enrollments reached a maximum in
Fall 2003. First-year enrollments have continued to decline. Thus,
full-time enrollments will continue to decline and bachelor's degrees
should begin to decline after a maximum in AY2006-07, or, possibly,
AY2005-06.
After four years of records in full-time master's degree enrollments,
Fall 2004 enrollments underwent a significant decline. The pattern of
substantial master's degree growth through AY2003-04 will end abruptly
if the enrollment decline continues.
Full-time engineering doctoral enrollments continue to increase.
However, based on Fall 2004 data, the enrollment growth rate has
declined. Declining master's enrollments could have a continuing impact
on doctoral enrollments.
Acknowledgments
The undergraduate and graduate enrollment data used in this study
originated from the annual surveys of the Engineering Workforce
Commission of the American Association of Engineering Societies.
Engineering Trends acknowledges the efforts of this organization in
providing credible data and expresses its gratitude for their services
to the engineering profession. Persons seeking further information about
their surveys and the availability of survey data should visit the AAES/EWC
Web site (www.aaes.org).
Footnotes
Engineering Trends data are compiled mainly from information
submitted by universities to the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the
very rare occasions where errors in data appear, Engineering Trends
corrects the error, if possible, or deletes the data if the error is
large enough to alter significantly the trend of the university or the
US total.
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