|
Introduction
First-year engineering enrollments reached a minimum in Fall 1984,
increased substantially through Fall 2002 and have declined since then.
Full-time undergraduate enrollments reached a maximum in Fall 2003 and
declined slightly in Fall 2004. The patterns of change for individual
engineering disciplines do not adhere to that of engineering as a whole.
This report analyzes the trends of those disciplines that depart from
the overall engineering trend.
Larger Engineering Disciplines
The full-time undergraduate enrollment trends of eight large
disciplines are shown in the graph below. "Computer" represents the
total of computer engineering, computer science and other disciplines
identified by universities as computer-related.
Mechanical and civil engineering show significant gains over the past
three years. "Computer", on the other hand, has declined substantially
from a maximum in Fall 2001. The enrollment losses of "computer" are
essentially the same as the gains of mechanical engineering. Bachelor's
degrees in mechanical and civil engineering should continue to increase
substantially for at least several years. "Computer" degrees should
begin to decline significantly in just a year or two.
The graph above shows that the long-term growth trends of aerospace
engineering and bioeng/biomedical engineering are continuing. Degree
growth in these disciplines should be maintained. The growth rate of the
latter in recent years will allow this combination of disciplines to
exceed the enrollment of aerospace and become sixth largest in
undergraduate engineering.
The graph below shows the relative numbers of engineering students
enrolled full-time in the eight largest academic disciplines. These
fractions indicate the preferences of enrolled students in these
disciplines. Prior to Fall 2000, these relative enrollment trends
differed somewhat from those of enrollments shown in the above graph. In
the last few years as total enrollment growth ceased, the relative
enrollment trends match closely the enrollment trends.
Smaller Engineering Disciplines
Full-time engineering enrollment data for nine smaller engineering
disciplines are shown in the graph below. Significant and sustained
enrollment growth has taken place in both nuclear and petroleum
engineering. Degree growth in nuclear engineering should continue and
degrees awarded in petroleum engineering should begin to increase.
Systems engineering has grown steadily since the early 1990s, but recent
data indicate little growth. Long-term enrollment declines are shown for
mining/geological engineering and manufacturing engineering. The
protracted decline in environmental engineering that began in the
mid-1990s has ceased and enrollments have been essentially constant
since Fall 2001.
Relative enrollment data for these nine engineering disciplines are
shown in the second graph below. These fractions should be interpreted
as discipline preferences of enrolled students.
Prediction of Future Trends Using First-Year Enrollments - Larger
Disciplines
First-year enrollment trends provide an insight to total full-time
enrollments in the future. The second graph below provides first-year
enrollment data for the eight larger disciplines considered previously.
Aerospace, bioeng/biomedical, civil and mechanical engineering all show
increasing first-year enrollments through Fall 2004; increasing
full-time enrollments should be maintained for at least two or three
more years. Undergraduate degrees awarded in these disciplines should
continue to increase at least through AY2008-09.
The substantial and continuing decline in first-year enrollments in
"computer" indicates that total full-time enrollments should continue to
decline for at least two or three more years. The decline in
undergraduate degrees awarded which may begin as soon as AY2004-05 (data
will be available in about four months) should be significant and
sustained. First-year enrollments in electrical engineering have been
declining slowly since Fall 2001. The underlying reason for this
decrease may be the same as for the declining "computer" enrollments due
to the overlap in the technological content of these disciplines.
Prediction of Future Trends Using First-Year Enrollments - Smaller
Disciplines
First-year enrollments in nuclear, marine, materials and petroleum
engineering have been
increasing steadily since Fall 2001 as shown in the graph below.
Total full-time enrollments should increase slowly over the next two or
three years. Modest degree growth should be expected through AY2008-09
in these disciplines.
The decline in first-year enrollments in systems engineering
indicates that total full-time enrollments should begin to decline
possibly as soon as Fall 2005. Degrees will probably begin to decrease a
year or two later.
Summary
Mechanical and civil engineering are experiencing substantial
first-year and total full-time enrollment growth. The number of
bachelor's degrees awarded in these disciplines should continue to grow
at least through AY2008-89. Aerospace and bioeng/biomedical engineering
are also growing in terms of first-year and total full-time enrollments.
Degrees should also continue to grow.
"Computer" has experienced severe declines in both first-year and
total full-time enrollments. Degrees, increasing rapidly through
AY2003-04, should now begin a sustained period of decline.
Based upon first-year and total full-time enrollments, bachelor's
degrees in nuclear engineering should continue to increase and degrees
in marine, materials and petroleum engineering should begin to increase.
Acknowledgments
The undergraduate enrollment data used in this study originated from
the annual surveys of the Engineering Workforce Commission of the
American Association of Engineering Societies. Engineering Trends
acknowledges the efforts of this organization in providing credible data
and expresses its gratitude for their services to the engineering
profession. Persons seeking further information about their surveys and
the availability of survey data should visit the AAES/EWC Web site (www.aaes.org).
Footnotes
Engineering Trends data are compiled mainly from information
submitted by universities to the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the
very rare occasions where errors in data appear, Engineering Trends
corrects the error, if possible, or deletes the data if the error is
large enough to alter significantly the trend of the university or the
US total.
|
