Undergraduate engineering enrollments, including those for computer science both within and "outside" of the engineering colleges surveyed, are slowly declining. First-year enrollments reached a maximum in fall 2002; total full-time enrollments reached a maximum in fall 2003. The total number of bachelor's degrees is expected to begin to decline in AY2005-06. The temporal extents of these declines and their magnitudes cannot be addressed at this time. However, a period of decline is a critical matter to engineering colleges and potential employers of engineering graduates.

The study described in this report addressed the first-year and total full-time enrollment trends in nine individual engineering disciplines.

Undergraduate Engineering Enrollment Data

The graph below shows the three-decade trends in first-year and full-time total engineering enrollments. Clearly, full-time enrollments have declined only a small fraction of the increase from fall 1994 through fall 2003. Thus, the severity of the declining trend has yet to be determined.

Total Full-time Enrollments in Individual Engineering Disciplines

The engineering disciplines selected for study were aerospace, "biological" (bioeng and biomedical), chemical, civil, "computer" (computer engineering and computer science in universities with engineering colleges), electrical, industrial, materials and mechanical engineering. The graph below for full-time enrollments indicates that individual engineering disciplines depart from the trend of engineering as a whole.

Increases in full-time undergraduate enrollments in recent years for aerospace, "biological", mechanical and civil engineering are shown. "Biological" engineering has increased by 131% since fall 2000, but increased only 6% in fall 2005. Mechanical engineering increased by 41% since the minimum in fall 1996; the growth rate eased somewhat in fall 2005. Civil engineering enrollments have continued to grow at a constant rate (a total of 41% since the minimum in fall 1999). Slow, but sustained, growth (6% since fall 2003) has taken place in aerospace engineering enrollments since the minimum in fall 1996.

Industrial and materials engineering full-time undergraduate enrollments have remained essentially constant since fall 1991 and fall 1985, respectively. Chemical engineering, following a decline of 29% from fall 1994 through fall 2002, has exhibited constant enrollments for the last three years.

"Computer" and electrical engineering have experienced substantial enrollment declines in the past few years. "Computer" engineering reached a maximum in full-time undergraduate enrollment in fall 2001 and subsequently declined by 28% through fall 2005. The data shown in the graph above provide little evidence that this trend will end soon. Electrical engineering enrollments have also been decreasing significantly. Following the maximum in fall 2002, enrollments decreased 10%, with the fall 2005 decline being 8%.

First-year Enrollments Give Insights to Future Enrollment Trends

First-year undergraduate enrollment variations typically signal variations that will occur in total full-time enrollments a year or so hence. The graph below shows the trends for the nine engineering disciplines selected for the present study.

Aerospace, "biological", civil and mechanical engineering were discussed previously as having increasing total full-time undergraduate enrollments. First-year enrollments indicate that "biological" and civil engineering will continue this growth trend. "Biological" engineering grew 132% from fall 1997 in first-year enrollments (only 5% in fall 2005); civil engineering grew 51% from fall 1999 (8% in fall 2005). Aerospace engineering has shown constant first-year enrollments since fall 2003. Mechanical engineering grew 56% in first-year enrollments from fall 1997 through fall 2004; a decline of 1% occurred in fall 2005. Growth in total full-time enrollments in this discipline might end in a year or two.

Chemical engineering first-year enrollments grew 13% from fall 2001 through fall 2005. This period of increase should result in a slight upward trend in total full-time undergraduate enrollments beginning in fall 2006.

Industrial and materials engineering first-year enrollments continue to remain essentially constant. Thus, the constant total full-time enrollments in these two disciplines through fall 2005 should continue in the near future.

"Computer" and electrical engineering first-year enrollments continue to decline. "Computer" engineering declined 36% since fall 2001 and 13% in fall 2005. Continued declines in total full-time enrollments are anticipated and it appears that the extent of this trend cannot be determined. Electrical engineering first-year enrollments have declined 18% since fall 2000 and 11% in fall 2005. Total full-time enrollments should, therefore, continue to decline for an undetermined period of time.

Summary

First-year and total full-time engineering enrollments, including computer science both within and "outside" of the engineering colleges surveyed, are declining. This report is directed toward the individual engineering disciplines. Nine disciplines were selected for study: aerospace, "biological" (bioeng and biomedical), chemical, civil, "computer" (computer engineering and computer science both within and "outside" the engineering colleges surveyed), electrical, industrial, materials and mechanical engineering. Total full-time enrollments were used to assess historical and current trends; first-year enrollments provided an insight to trends in the near future.

Aerospace engineering full-time enrollments have been increasing slowly, but recent first-year enrollments have been constant. "Biological" engineering full-time enrollments have been increasing substantially as have first-year enrollments. The first-year enrollment growth rate for fall 2005 was significantly less than the past trend. Chemical engineering full-time enrollments have been constant for the past few years; first-year enrollments, however, have increased slowly in recent years. Civil engineering continues to grow in both first-year and total full-time enrollments. First-year and full-time enrollments in mechanical engineering have been growing significantly since the mid-1990s. However, first-year enrollments declined slightly in fall 2005.

Both industrial and materials engineering have experienced essentially constant total full-time enrollments for about two decades. First-year enrollments for these two disciplines have been essentially constant for almost a decade.

"Computer" engineering has undergone substantial declines in both first-year and total full-time enrollments since fall 2001. These declines are expected to continue. Electrical engineering first-year and total full-time enrollments have been declining since fall 2001 and fall 2002, respectively. The rate of decline of first-year enrollments has increased annually. Full-time enrollment declines are expected to continue.

Acknowledgments

The enrollment data used in this study originated from the annual surveys of the Engineering Workforce Commission of the American Association for Engineering Societies. Engineering Trends acknowledges the efforts of this organization in providing credible data and expresses its gratitude for their services to the engineering profession. Persons seeking further information about their surveys and the availability of survey data should visit the EWC Web site (www.aaes.org).

Footnote

Engineering Trends data are compiled mainly from information submitted by universities to the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the very rare occasions where errors in data appear, Engineering Trends corrects the error, if possible, or deletes the data if the error is large enough to alter significantly the trend of the university or the US total.