Enrollment Records Are Here – Degree Records to Arrive Soon

Undergraduate degrees grew rapidly in the late 70s and early 80s and reached a maximum in 1985-86 (EWC data). Subsequently, a period of rapid decline set in. The decade of the 90s opened with the end of the period of significant decreases in degrees. Following the strong growth of graduate degrees in the 80s, master’s degrees reached a maximum in 1994-95 and doctoral degrees reached a maximum in 1996-97.

This report is aimed at providing an insight into what now appears to be an oncoming period of substantial degree growth at bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral degrees. New degree records in all three degrees appear highly probable in the near future.

Bachelor’s Degrees

The cyclic behavior of engineering bachelor’s degrees over the past three decades is shown in the graph below.

The period of the 90s, for the most part, was one of fluctuation with only a slight declining trend. However, from AY1999-00, degrees have increased and the magnitudes of the annual increases have increased as well. As of AY2001-02, the number of degrees was only 9530 (EWC data) less than the record set in AY1985-86. Degrees have increased an average of about 2500 (EWC data) annually for the last two years. These data do not assure a new record, but they certainly support consideration of such.

Sustaining the bachelor’s degree growth has been the growth in full-time undergraduate enrollment that began in Fall 1999 (EWC data) as shown in the graph below. (Only about 10% of overall undergraduate enrollment is part-time.)

Since Fall 1999, EWC and ASEE surveys have indicated an average annual full-time enrollment growth of about 17,000. The current record for full-time enrollment, set in Fall 1983, is, 406,144 (EWC data). Thus, it should be expected that if the growth trend remains as robust as shown in the graph above, a new record for full-time enrollment would occur in Fall 2004.

But, will the new record for enrollment be a new maximum to be followed by a period of decline? Or, will it be followed by further enrollment records in subsequent years? History has shown that degree maxima and minima lag by about two years the maxima and minima in full-time undergraduate enrollment. If the enrollment record that occurs in Fall 2004, is an enrollment maximum as well, a maximum in bachelor’s degrees should be expected in AY2006-07. If an enrollment maximum does not occur in Fall 2004, continued undergraduate degree growth should take place after AY2006-07.

Insight to this uncertainity comes from the fact that, just like maxima in full-time undergraduate enrollments lead to maxima in degrees two years later, maxima in full-time first-year enrollments lead to maxima in total full-time enrollments two years later. In the absence of a maximum in first-year engineering enrollments, maxima in full-time enrollments and in degrees are more than two and four years in the future, respectively.

First-year full-time engineering enrollments reached a minimum in Fall 1994 (EWC data). The graph below shows the pattern of growth since that time.

The growth in first-year enrollments since Fall 1994 has been 19,718 students (23%) to 104,765 in Fall 2002 (EWC data). The current first-year enrollment record of 115,303 was set in Fall 1982 (EWC data).

It is noteworthy that the data from both EWC and ASEE surveys show only a modest increase for Fall 2002. It would appear that a maximum in the first-year enrollments is either “near” or was reached in Fall 2002. Assuming the latter, the first-year enrollment data would indicate a maximum in the total full-time enrollment in Fall 2004 and a maximum in undergraduate degrees in AY 2006-07, results consistent with conclusions stated previously.

A maximum for the first-year full-time engineering enrollment for Fall 2002 is supported by the correlation between a decline in demand for graduates (e.g., fewer on-campus interviews of graduates by industrial recruiters) and first-year enrollments. Data indicate that this delay is about two years. Thus, a maximum in first-year enrollment would be likely in Fall 2002.

Predictions of future behavior of statistics are typically problematic. However, Engineering Trends, on the basis of the information presented here, believes that a maximum in first-year engineering enrollments was attained in Fall 2002, a maximum in total full-time enrollment will be reached in Fall 2004 and a new record (and a maximum) in engineering bachelor’s degrees will result in AY2006-07.

The corollaries to these predictions are that first-year enrollments should begin to decrease in Fall 2003 (data should be available in the late Spring 2004) and full-time enrollments will begin to decrease in Fall 2005. Thus, bachelor’s degrees will reach a new record at the time hen enrollments are declining.

The unknown factor in this scenario is ”industrial demand”. The sooner the demand begins to increase significantly, the lesser will be the damage to engineering enrollment. The US economy now appears to be advancing, but slowly. However, “rehiring” (including recruiting of engineering graduates) is typically one of the last elements of an economic recovery. An increase in demand precedes an increase in first-year enrollment by two years, which precedes an increase in full-time total enrollment by two years, which precedes an increase in undergraduate degrees by two years. The eight-year span from demand changes to degree changes could result in another degree cycle.

Master’s Degrees

The rapid growth in master’s degrees in engineering from the late 70s to the early 90s is shown in the graph below. In both AY2000-01 and AY2002-03, the number of degrees awarded was almost as large as the record number awarded in AY1994-95 (EWC data).

Full-time master’s degree enrollments provide insight to the degree trend to be expected in the next few years. (Part-time master’s degree enrollments in engineering comprise about 40% of total enrollments in recent years (EWC data).) The graph below shows the very rapid growth of enrollment beginning in Fall 1999.

New records in full-time master’s enrollments were set in Fall 2000, Fall 2001 and Fall 2002. Enrollment growth from Fall 1998 through Fall 2002 was 18,146 (47%) (EWC data), an average annual increase of about 4500 students.

It is surprising that this enrollment growth did not lead to a substantial increase in engineering master’s degrees in AY 2001-02. However, there should be little doubt that a series of new records beginning in AY2002-03 will occur for engineering master’s degrees.

Doctoral Degrees

The growth of doctoral degrees in the 80s and early 90s leading to a maximum in AY1996-97 is shown in the graph above. Following the two-year decline from the maximum in AY1996-97,  the number of doctoral degrees awarded annually has remained essentially constant through AY2001-02 (EWC data).

Increasing numbers of doctoral degrees in engineering over the next few years is indicated by the full-time doctoral enrollments. (Part-time doctoral enrollment was about 14% of total doctoral enrollment in Fall 2002 (EWC data),) The graph below shows the rapid increase in doctoral enrollments over the past few years.

Doctoral enrollments set new records in Fall 2001 and Fall 2002. It is noteworthy that the magnitude of annual growth has increased every year since the minimum in Fall 1997. Over the past two years, the average annual increase has been about 3800 students (11% per year) (EWC data).

The doctoral enrollment growth should result in significantly increased doctoral degrees awarded in AY2003-04. In AY2001-02, the number of degrees was about 1100 less than the AY1996-97 maximum (EWC data). Considering the magnitudes of the enrollment increases, a new doctoral degree record should occur AY2004-05.

Summary

First-year full-time engineering enrollments appear to have reached a maximum. A maximum was predicted previously due to the declining demand for bachelor’s degree graduates. Total full-time undergraduate enrollments should be expected to reach a maximum in Fall 2004; this maximum should be a new record. Bachelor’s degrees should reach a maximum in AY2006-07; this maximum should also be a new record. A decline in first-year enrollment, if prolonged, could result in a period of decreasing bachelor’s degrees at a time when demand is increasing.

Master’s degrees are predicted to set a new record in AY2002-03. Rapidly increasing full-time enrollments assure continued annual increases in the number of master’s degrees awarded. Doctoral degrees should set a new record in AY2004-05. Rapidly increasing full-time doctoral enrollments should lead to continued degree growth in subsequent years. Engineering graduate degree numbers depend strongly on financial support from government, industry and foundations. If this support does not continue to grow, the current growth trend in graduate enrollments may not be sustained.

Acknowledgments

The data for this study came from the annual surveys of the Engineering Workforce Commission of the American Association of Engineering Societies and the American Society for Engineering Education. Engineering Trends acknowledges their efforts in providing credible data and expresses its gratitude for their services to the engineering profession.

American Society for Engineering Education survey data for the period AY1993-94 through AY1998-99 were not used in this report since the number of universities providing information was somewhat lower than in other years. Thus, the totals for US degrees and enrollments were lowered. However, the data from those universities that submitted information during this period are generally consistent with both prior and later data.

Footnote

Engineering Trends data are compiled from information submitted by universities to the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the very rare occasions where errors in data appear, Engineering Trends corrects the error, if possible, or deletes the data if the error is large enough to alter significantly the trend of the university or the US total.