Shouldn't it be expected that in a technology-dependent nation like the United States increasing numbers of citizens would be annually awarded engineering degrees? Well, this trend is not underway. The situation appears even worse if degrees per capita are considered.

This report defines the magnitudes of these trends. Bachelor's, master's and doctoral engineering degrees awarded to US citizens since AY1965-66 along with degrees per capita are considered. In addition, degrees per capita for nine engineering disciplines are presented.

Undergraduate Engineering Degrees

Bachelor's degrees awarded by US colleges of engineering (totals and US citizens) are shown in the graph below. It should be noted that the contribution of foreign nationals (the difference between the totals and the numbers of US citizens) has been essentially constant for the last three decades.



The maximum reached in AY2004-05 almost reached that of AY1985-86. At the present time, degrees have begun to decline.

When degrees per capita are considered, as shown in the graph below, the maximum in the early years of the present decade becomes less spectacular. At the present time, the number of bachelor's degrees per capita for US citizens is only 18.3% higher than it was at the maximum 35 years ago and 20.8% lower than it was at the maximum 25 years ago.

Engineering Master's Degrees

Master's degrees and degrees per capita are shown in the two graphs below. Enrollment data indicate that the marked declines in AY2005-06 may continue for just a year or so. Total full-time enrollment data increased 2.3% in fall 2006 after a two-year decline of 13.4%.

The two graphs below indicate the significant influence of foreign national students on the number of engineering master's degrees awarded by US colleges of engineering. Further, the foreign national contribution to master's degrees has increased annually.



The number of US citizens awarded master's degrees in engineering has generally increased annually for about thirty years, but with a significant decline from AY1994-95 through AY2000-01. The subsequent four years of growth have offset that decline.

On a per capita basis, the maximum in AY2004-05 is less than the "all time" maximum in AY1993-94 by 2.1%. In addition, the minimum in AY 2000-01 is only 20.1% greater than the minimum in AY1978-79, almost a quarter of a century earlier.



Engineering Doctoral Degrees

Total doctoral degrees awarded by US universities are currently growing at an unprecedented rate. Since the minimum in AY2001-02 through AY2005-06, total doctoral degrees increased 38.4% due mainly to the 56.9% increase in the number of doctoral degrees awarded to foreign nationals. In AY2005-06, 62.2% of the doctoral degrees of US engineering colleges were awarded to foreign nationals.

Analysis of data for US citizens provides a new perspective. The maximum number of engineering doctorates awarded to US citizens that occurred in AY1996-97 is only 15.7% greater than the previous maximum 27 years earlier. Further, the number of engineering doctorates awarded to US citizens in AY2005-06 was essentially the same as in AY1969-70.

On a per capita basis, the maximum number of engineering doctorates awarded to US citizens occurred in AY1969-70 as shown in the second graph below. The maximum in AY1996-97 is 17.4% lower than former maximum and the number per capita in AY2005-05 is 32.5% lower.

Degrees per Capita in Various Engineering Disciplines

The three graphs below show the bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees per capita for US citizens since AY 1975-76 for nine engineering disciplines. "Biological" is the sum of bioengineering and biomedical engineering; "computer" is the sum of computer engineering, computer science (in universities with engineering colleges) and computer science and engineering.



The trends in bachelor's degrees per capita for US citizens shown in the graph above for the nine disciplines have little in common other than most of them are cyclic. The cyclic trends for aerospace, chemical, electrical and mechanical engineering have resulted in more recent maxima and/or minima that are lower in magnitude than prior maxima and/or minima. (However, the current growth trend for aerospace engineering is significant. Since the minimum in AY1998-99, bachelor's degrees per capita have increased 116%.) For civil engineering, on the other hand, the two maxima are essentially the same and the two minima are essentially the same. "Biological" has increased continuously and significantly for thirty years and materials engineering has slowly decreased 34% from a maximum in AY1983-84. Industrial engineering decreased 29% from AY1990-91 to AY1997-98 and has varied little since then. "Computer", after minor cycles in the 1980s, increased rapidly to a maximum in AY2003-04 followed by a steep decline.

The graduate degrees per capita awarded to US citizens are shown in the two graphs below.

Like the undergraduate degrees per capita shown in the graph previously, cyclic trends are seen for most disciplines. As would be expected, the doctoral degree cycles for a given discipline have maxima and minima that occur several years after the maxima for master's degrees per capita.

The graduate degrees per capita awarded to US citizens are shown in the two graphs above. As should be expected, the doctoral degree maxima and minima occur several years after the maxima and minima for master's degrees. This can be seen for aerospace, chemical, electrical, industrial, materials and mechanical engineering. For civil engineering, the cycles depart somewhat from the doctoral-master's "regularity" mentioned above. However, the civil engineering graduate degree cycles exhibit some of the nature of the undergraduate degree cycles - degrees per capita maxima and minima values have been essentially constant for the thirty-year period shown.

"Biological" master's degrees per capita have increased continuously for three decades. Doctoral degrees per capita did not increase until AY1986-87; continuous increases occurred thereafter.

In general, decreasing trends in master's and doctoral degrees per capita over the past ten to twenty years have occurred for aerospace, chemical, electrical, industrial and mechanical engineering. Minor increases are evident for electrical and mechanical engineering in recent years. Civil engineering degrees per capita have been cyclic, but overall, are not declining.

"Biological" graduate degrees per capita have risen for three decades. For "computer", master's degrees per capita increased to a maximum in AY2003-04 and have declined in the last two years; doctoral degrees reached a maximum in AY1994-95, declined to a minimum in AY2002-03 and have since increased to the level of the AY1994-95 maximum.

Summary

The trends in the bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees awarded to US citizens since AY1965-66 were studied. Both numbers of degrees and degrees per capita were examined. Trends for nine engineering disciplines since AY1975-76 were also considered.

Bachelor's degrees awarded to US citizens reached a maximum in AY2004-05 that was slightly less than the maximum in AY1985-86 and are now declining. In terms of degrees per capita, the more recent maximum is 20.8% lower than the former.

Master's degrees awarded to US citizens reached a maximum in AY2004-05 that was 27.5% greater than the previous maximum in AY1994-95. In terms of degrees per capita, there was a 3.4% decline.

Doctoral degrees awarded to US citizens reached a maximum in AY1996-97. The decline since then has been 14.9%. (The number of engineering doctorates awarded to US citizens in AY2005-06 was essentially the same as in AY1969-70.) In terms of degrees per capita, the decline has been 22.7%.

Bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees per capita (US citizens) for most engineering disciplines exhibited cyclic behavior and declined over the past ten to twenty years. "Biological" and "computer" disciplines in general exhibited growth, but bachelor's and master's degrees per capita in "computer" disciplines declined in the last two years.

Acknowledgments

The degree data used in this study originated from the annual surveys of the Engineering Workforce Commission of the American Association of Engineering Societies. Engineering Trends acknowledges the efforts of this organization in providing credible data and expresses its gratitude for their services to the engineering profession. Persons seeking further information about their surveys and the availability of survey data should visit the EWC Web site (www.aaes.org).

Footnote

Engineering Trends data are compiled mainly from information submitted by universities to the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the very rare occasions where errors in data appear, Engineering Trends corrects the error, if possible, or deletes the data if the error is large enough to alter significantly the trend of the university or the US total.