First-year enrollments began to decline in fall 2003 and total full-time undergraduate enrollments began to decline in fall 2004. These enrollment declines have now terminated the rapid growth in bachelor's degrees (23%) since AY1998-99.

Full-time master's degree enrollments reached a maximum in fall 2003 and declined in both fall 2004 and fall 2005. The declines resulted in a maximum in master's degrees in AY2004-05 after a growth of 36% since AY1997-98.

Full-time doctoral enrollments have continued to grow since the minimum in fall 1997. However, the growth rates in the last few years have been very low. Doctoral degree growth has remained very high through AY2005-06 (45% since AY1997-98). The low doctoral enrollment growth rates in recent years should result in a significant reduction in the rate of degree growth in the very near future.

This report examines current undergraduate and graduate enrollment trends in order to foresee changes that should be anticipated in the numbers of degrees that will be awarded in the near future.

Undergraduate Enrollments

The three graphs below indicate the recent trends in first-year, total full-time and total part-time enrollments as reported by engineering colleges to the American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE) and the Engineering Workforce Commission of the American Association of Engineering Societies (EWC).

The declines in first-year and total full-time enrollments in the last few years are shown. The differences in data reported to the two surveying organizations (especially for fall 2006) are of great concern in defining enrollment trends and making predictions of degree trends in the future.

Engineering Trends studied the survey data reported by engineering colleges to ASEE and EWC for fall 2004, fall 2005 and fall 2006 in order to better understand the apparent discrepancies for fall 2006 and the data leading to them.

For the most part, the discrepancies resulted from six engineering colleges either declining to report enrollments to one of the surveying organizations or reporting distinctly different data to the two surveying organizations. The large enrollments in most of these colleges resulted in the significant discrepancies in the fall 2006 data shown above.

Engineering Trends "modified" the enrollment data for fall 2004, fall 2005 and fall 2006 by "supplying" missing data and "improving" reported data by considering trends at these colleges and reconciling data reported to the two surveying organizations. As a result of these "modifications", ASEE first-year enrollments decreased 2.1% in fall 2005 and increased 5.5% in fall 2006. The corresponding changes for EWC were a decrease of 1.7% in fall 2005 and an increase of 2.3% in fall 2006. Thus, both surveys indicate that first-year enrollments increased in fall 2006.

The "modifications" for full-time enrollments indicated, for ASEE data, a decrease of 2.3% in fall 2005 and an increase of 1.7% in fall 2006. For EWC data, the "modifications" resulted in a decrease of 1.8% in fall 2005 and a decrease of only 0.2% in fall 2006. The "modifications" removed essentially all of the fall 2006 decline exhibited by the "unmodified" EWC survey data. Taking a broader view of the undergraduate first-year and full-time enrollment situation, increasing undergraduate enrollments appear now to be at hand.

Graduate Enrollments

Both full-time and part-time engineering master's degree enrollments have been declining in recent years as shown in the graph below. Fall 2006 data from both ASEE and EWC indicate that this trend has reversed for full-time enrollments. However, the declining trend for part-time enrollments continues.



The full-time enrollment increase should result in a resumption of the increasing trend of master's degrees. Although the declining part-time enrollments are a cause for concern, the extended period of enrollment prior to awarding a degree dampens the trend of part-time enrollments on master's degrees.

Doctoral full-time enrollments have continued to increase in recent years according to both ASEE and EWC surveys as shown in the graph below. The very slight declines shown for part-time enrollments in both surveys are of little consequence in regard to doctoral degrees. The slump in master's enrollments in past years might result in a decline in doctoral enrollments in the next year or so. However, the resurgence in master's degree full-time enrollments signals continued long-term doctoral enrollment growth even if a near-term doctoral enrollment decline takes place. It should be anticipated that doctoral degree growth will continue, but probably at a lower rate than in the past few years.



Summary

Engineering enrollments now appear to be increasing at all three academic levels according to ASEE and EWC surveys. For undergraduate enrollments, trend predictions are hampered somewhat by six engineering colleges reporting only to one surveying organization or reporting significantly different information to each. Engineering Trend's "modification" of the data to reconcile trends of the six colleges in both surveys indicated that undergraduate engineering first-year and total full-time enrollments began to increase in fall 2006.

Full-time master's degree enrollments increased slightly in fall 2006 in both ASEE and EWC surveys. On the other hand, both surveys indicated that the decline in part-time enrollments continued in fall 2006.

Both ASEE and EWC surveys indicate that full-time doctoral enrollments increased slightly in fall 2005 and fall 2006. Further, part-time doctoral enrollments declined in both surveys in fall 2006. The declines in master's degree enrollments in fall 2004 and fall 2005 may negatively affect doctoral enrollments in the near future. However, the growth of master's degree enrollments in fall 2006 indicates that doctoral enrollments are poised for continued long-term growth.

Acknowledgments

The degree data used in this study originated from the annual surveys of the American Society for Engineering Education and the Engineering Workforce Commission of the American Association of Engineering Societies. Engineering Trends acknowledges the efforts of thse organizations in providing credible data and expresses its gratitude for their services to the engineering profession. Persons seeking further information about their surveys and the availability of survey data should visit the Web sites of ASEE (www.asee.org) and EWC  (www.aaes.org).

Footnote

Engineering Trends data are compiled mainly from information submitted by universities to the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the very rare occasions where errors in data appear, Engineering Trends corrects the error, if possible, or deletes the data if the error is large enough to alter significantly the trend of the university or the US total.