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Introduction
For engineering as a whole, first-year enrollments increased annually
since Fall 1984 and reached a maximum in Fall 2002. Total full-time
undergraduate enrollments have grown steadily since Fall 1996 and are
expected to reach a maximum in Fall 2004. These data are shown in the
graph below.
It is anticipated that the total number of undergraduate degrees in
engineering will reach a maximum and set a new record in AY2006-07. The
extent of the subsequent degree decline will depend upon when a
significant increase in demand for engineering graduates occurs. It has
been shown that time lag of about six years exists between the decision
of high school students to study engineering and their graduation. Thus,
if demand were to increase substantially in AY2004-05, the impact on
increasing the number of engineering graduates would not be observed
until about AY 2010-11.
It is expected that the individual engineering disciplines will not
follow the general pattern of variation as total engineering enrollments
and degrees. Engineering Trends investigated the total full-time
enrollments of seventeen disciplines through Fall 2003 in order
establish current trends, analyze student preferences and predict future
degree variations. The engineering disciplines studied were aerospace,
bioengineering/biomedical, chemical, computer (engineering plus science
in engineering colleges), civil, electrical, environmental, management,
manufacturing, industrial, marine/naval, mechanical, mining/geological,
materials (science and engineering), nuclear, petroleum and systems.
Enrollments in Larger Engineering Disciplines
The graph below indicates the full-time undergraduate enrollment trends
in the eight largest engineering disciplines.
Continued and substantial enrollment growth in mechanical, civil,
bio-/biomedical and aerospace engineering is evident. Electrical
engineering continues to exhibit slow enrollment growth since the
minimum in Fall 1996. Industrial engineering enrollments have remained
constant since Fall 1991. The chemical engineering enrollment decline
that began in Fall 1995 has continued and the decline in "computer"
enrollment that began in Fall 2002 has now intensified significantly. It
is noteworthy that the Fall 2003 decline in "computer" is almost as
large as the increase in mechanical engineering.
The relative enrollments of these eight disciplines shown in the graph
below show the effects of variations in overall engineering enrollments
and indicate undergraduate student preferences for individual
disciplines. The enrollment trends noted above for most of the eight
disciplines are apparent in the relative enrollment data. However,
electrical engineering continues to decline and civil engineering shows
essentially no growth in relative enrollment. Thus, undergraduate
student preferences for these disciplines remain weak.
Mechanical, aerospace and bio-/biomedical engineering degrees ought to
be least affected by the overall decline in engineering degrees that
will begin in a few years. Of the other five of the larger disciplines,
computer and chemical engineering are expected to be seriously impacted
by the forthcoming decline in the total number of engineering graduates.
Enrollments in Smaller Engineering Disciplines
The full-time undergraduate enrollments (since Fall 1975) of nine of the
smaller engineering disciplines are shown in the graph below. In spite
of the statistical scatter in the data for some disciplines, trends are
still evident.
Nuclear and petroleum engineering enrollments after many years of
decline are clearly in a period of significant growth at the present
time. Nuclear engineering enrollments reached a minimum of 518 in Fall
1997 (an average of about ten enrolled students per state in the US).
Through Fall 2003, there was an increase of 121% to 1147. Petroleum
engineering had a minimum in enrollment in Fall 1995 and has increased
48% to 1717 in Fall 2003.
Systems engineering appears to be increasing in enrollment since the
minimum in Fall 1991 of 1141. Through Fall 2003, the enrollment has
increased 93% to 2204. Data scatter, however, impedes somewhat analysis
of the magnitude of the recent trend.
Marine engineering and materials science and engineering undergraduate
enrollments appear to be increasing since Fall 2001. Data scatter for
these disciplines as well as the short duration of the increases
precludes definition of current trends.
The other four disciplines (environmental, manufacturing, mining/geol
and management engineering) can be seen to exhibit relatively long-term
enrollment decline trends.
The relative enrollments of these nine smaller disciplines are shown in
the graph below. As would be anticipated, only nuclear, petroleum and
systems engineering have increasing trends in recent years. Marine
engineering relative enrollments appear to be constant within the limits
of the data scatter. Thus, two-thirds of the disciplines in this group
are currently not keeping pace with the enrollment variations of
engineering as a whole.
It is expected that most of the disciplines in this group (except for
nuclear, petroleum and systems engineering) will have declines in
bachelor's degrees that exceed the rate of decline in overall
engineering degrees that is predicted to begin in AY2007-08.
Summary
Aerospace, bio-/biomedical, civil, electrical, mechanical, nuclear,
petroleum and systems engineering are the only engineering disciplines
that show increasing undergraduate full-time enrollments during the
current period of increasing total full-time undergraduate engineering
enrollments. Nine other disciplines included in the study had constant
or declining enrollments. Only aerospace, bio-/biomedical, mechanical,
nuclear, petroleum and systems engineering were found to have increasing
relative enrollments (fractions of overall engineering). It is predicted
that only these six disciplines will have rates of degree decline less
than the overall rate of decline of engineering that is expected to
begin in AY2007-08.
Acknowledgment
The degree and enrollment data for this study originated from the annual
surveys of the Engineering Workforce Commission of the American
Association of Engineering Societies. Engineering Trends acknowledges
their efforts in providing credible data and expresses its gratitude for
their services to the engineering profession
Footnotes
Engineering Trends data are compiled mainly from information submitted
by universities to the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the very rare
occasions where errors in data appear, Engineering Trends corrects the
error, if possible, or deletes the data if the error is large enough to
alter significantly the trend of the university or the US total.
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