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Introduction
Bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees awarded by US engineering
programs since AY1945-46 have generally increased. However, the annual
growth rates have varied substantially with some years exhibiting
declines. The present study was undertaken to compare the overall degree
growth to the population increase in the US over the last six decades.
The study considered both total degrees awarded and degrees awarded to
US citizens, the latter since AY1970-71.
Undergraduate Degrees
The graph below shows engineering bachelor's degrees per million
population from AY1945-46. Degree data originated from surveys of the
American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE), the Engineering
Workforce Commission of the American Association of Engineering
Societies (EWC) and the US Department of Education (DoEd). (These degree
data are presented on the Degrees Since 1945 page of the Engineering
Trends Web site.) Population data were from the US Census Bureau surveys
and their annual interpolations. Degrees awarded to US citizens were
determined from the difference between total degrees and degrees awarded
to foreign nationals (EWC).
Bachelor's degrees reached marked maxima in the late 1940s and
mid-1980s. The former resulted from World War II veterans returning to
college; the latter was due to the sustained demand for engineering
graduates that began in the mid-1970s and lasted through the early
1980s. (The relationship between the cyclic nature of bachelor's degrees
and employment demand has been presented in a series of reports in
Inside Engineering Education on the Engineering Trends Web site. A
report in this series which relates directly to the present report has
been made available at no cost to all site visitors.) Outside of these
two maxima, undergraduate engineering degrees per million population
increased from about 125 to about 250 over the six decades covered by
this study. This doubling is much less than the increase in total number
of degrees from about 20, 000 to 70,000 during these six decades. A 100%
increase over six decades in degrees per million population would appear
to be inconsistent with the importance of technological progress to the
future of the US.
The fraction of total bachelor's degrees awarded to US citizens since
AY1970-71 has remained essentially constant (an average of 92.7% over
this period). Thus, degrees awarded to US citizens per million
population has followed the trend of total degrees as shown in the graph
above.
Master's and Doctoral Degrees
Total master's degrees in engineering increased from about 5000 in
AY1950-51 to about 35,000 in AY2002-03. Total doctoral degrees grew from
about 500 to about 6000 during the same period Maxima in both master's
and doctoral degrees occurred in the late 1960s/early 1970s and late
1980s/early 1990s. The maxima for doctoral degrees were much larger than
those for master's degrees. (These data on graduate degrees are shown on
the Degrees Since 1945 page of the Engineering Trends Web site.)
Master's degrees per million population, as shown in the two graphs
above, increased from about 35 in AY1950-51 to about 123 in AY2002-03.
Doctoral degrees per million population increased from about 4 to 21
over the same period. Clearly these increases are substantial. However,
as shown previously for undergraduate degrees, graduate degree growth
per million population is significantly more subdued when considered
relative to the population growth in the US.
The graphs above also show the variations of graduate degrees awarded to
US citizens relative to US population growth. The data for both master's
and doctoral degrees are decidedly cyclical as would be expected from
the total numbers of degrees awarded. It is important to note that the
overall trend in master's degrees awarded to US citizens per million
population since AY1970-71 has been a very slight increase. Doctoral
degrees per million show no long-term trend since AY1970-71.
Summary
Undergraduate degrees have increased by about 350% since the late 1940s.
However, relative to population growth over the last six decades,
bachelor's degrees in engineering have only doubled.
Both master's and doctoral degrees in engineering since AY1950-51 have
increased by about seven and twelve times, respectively. Even when
compared to population increases, the growth has been substantial. Since
AY1970-71, most of the growth relative to population increases in the US
is due to graduate degrees awarded to foreign nationals. The number of
graduate degrees awarded to US citizens has undergone significant cycles
over the past three decades. However, it appears that the long-term
trend for master's degrees awarded to US citizens relative to population
shows minimal growth and that for doctoral degrees is essentially
constant.
Acknowledgment
Engineering Trends acknowledges the suggestion of Professor William A.
Jesser of the University of Virginia to compare degree data to US
population increases in longitudinal studies. His input initiated the
study reported here and is greatly appreciated.
The degree and enrollment data for this study originated from the annual
surveys of the American Society for Engineering Education, the
Engineering Workforce Commission of the American Association of
Engineering Societies and the US Department of Education. Engineering
Trends acknowledges their efforts in providing credible data and
expresses its gratitude for their services to the engineering profession
Footnotes
Engineering Trends data are compiled mainly from information submitted
by universities to the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the very rare
occasions where errors in data appear, Engineering Trends corrects the
error, if possible, or deletes the data if the error is large enough to
alter significantly the trend of the university or the US total.
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