Education Trends in Materials Science and Engineering - Enrollments, Degrees, Gender, Ethnicity and Research Expenditures

Abstract

Undergraduate degrees in engineering as a whole reached a maximum in AY1985-86, subsequently declined to a minimum in AY1998-99 and are now rising to a new maximum predicted for AY2006-07. Undergraduate degrees awarded in materials have departed from this pattern. Bachelor's degrees in engineering awarded to women have now stagnated at about 20%. In materials, the fraction has risen to 31%. The fraction of bachelor's degrees awarded in materials to African Americans is about half that for engineering. The fractions for other ethnic groups are similar to those for engineering. Master's and doctoral degrees in engineering are growing rapidly; these trends will continue. In materials, master's degrees have declined slowly to about 2% of engineering from the maximum of 3% in the late 1970s. Doctoral degrees have remained constant at about 7% for a third of a century. Research expenditures in materials departments, however, have experienced minimal annual increases relative to other engineering disciplines for over ten years.

Introduction

Technological leadership requires an input of technological talent. This is true for both countries and organizations within those countries. Thus, engineering graduates are one of the key elements in the development of improved technologies. This paper focuses on the statistical trends of education in materials science and engineering (MSE) in the United States. The information will be presented in a manner that compares MSE to engineering as a whole.

Sources Of Statistical Information

The primary sources of data for US universities were the annual surveys of the Engineering Workforce Commission (EWC) of the American Association of Engineering Societies. These surveys began in the late 1960s and have been a credible source since that time. Data for research expenditures were obtained from the annual surveys of the American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE). They too began their surveys in the late 1960s and have provided credible data. Information on the numbers of bachelor's and doctoral degree graduates in other countries were obtained from both the National Science Foundation ("Science and Engineering Indicators 2004" (NSB 0401)) and from a survey by Engineering Trends carried out through embassies and education ministries.

US Degree Statistics - Comparison To Selected Countries

Engineering bachelor's degrees awarded in the US reached a maximum in AY1985-86, declined to a minimum in AY1998-99 and have increased since then. Enrollment data indicate that a maximum will be reached in AY2006-07 (possibly AY2005-06) and that maximum may exceed the former one. These degree data are shown in Figure 1 along with degree data from various other countries.

Figure 1. Bachelor's degrees awarded in the US and in selected other countries.

The substantial growth in degrees in the Asian countries is clear. Considering the single data point of Russia, the US is currently fourth and will probably decrease to fifth in just a few years.

Doctoral degrees awarded in the US increased significantly from AY1977-78 through AY1996-97. Full-time graduate student enrollments that began to increase in the late 1990s have resulted in substantial growth in graduate degrees (initially master's and now doctoral). The doctoral degree trends are shown in Figure 2 and are compared to doctoral degrees warded in selected countries.

Figure 2. Doctoral degrees awarded in the US and in selected other countries.

At the present time, full-time doctoral enrollments in the US are continuing to increase rapidly. Degrees should surpass the record of AY1996-97 by AY2005-06 (possibly AY2004-05). However, the fraction of foreign nationals awarded engineering doctorates has steadily increased to 58% in AY2003-04. Disruption of the flow of graduate students from foreign countries would have a serious impact on the number of doctoral degrees awarded in the future.

The growth in engineering doctorates awarded in Asian countries parallels the trends shown in Figure 1 for bachelor's degrees.

A different perspective is obtained from consideration of bachelor's and doctoral degrees per capita. Table I shows the ranking of 35 countries in terms of degrees per million population. The rankings of the US (25th in bachelor's and 16th in doctoral degrees) should be a cause for concern. This is especially so when the per capita data for other countries are considered. The high rankings for most of the Asian countries that graduate large numbers of engineers (see Figures 1 and 2) are noteworthy.

Table I. Bachelor's and doctoral degrees awarded per million population (2000 or year indicated).

Materials Science And Engineering Statistical Trends

Degrees

MSE undergraduate degree trends do not follow closely those of engineering as a whole. As shown in Figure 3, the growth in bachelor's degrees during the late 1970s preceded that of engineering by about five years. The growth in undergraduate degrees in engineering since AY 1998-99 has not been shared by MSE during that period. From their minima in the mid-1970s to their maxima in the early 1990s, the master's degrees awarded in MSE and engineering both doubled. Master's degrees in engineering have set new records in AY2002-03 and AY2003-04; master's degrees in MSE have yet to reach their AY1993-94 record. The MSE doctoral trend follows that of engineering in both timing and extent of increase (275%) from their minima in the late 1970s to their maxima in AY1996-97.

Figure 3. MSE degree trends.

A comparison of MSE and engineering degree trends over the past three decades is shown in Figure 4. The MSE fraction of engineering degrees has been relatively constant except for the minor "bump" in the late 1970s and the slow but steady decline over the past half decade. Master's degrees in MSE have not kept pace with engineering; the MSE fraction has declined from about 3% in the late 1970s to about 2% in AY 2003-04. Doctoral degrees in MSE have generally held constant at about 7% over the past third of a century.

Figure 4. Comparison of MSE and engineering degree trends since AY1970-71.

Figure 5. Full-time bachelor's (including first-year), master's and doctoral enrollments in MSE.

Enrollments

Enrollment data provide a means for obtaining short-term predictions of future degree trends. Figure 5 indicates that doctoral enrollments are in an extended period of growth; degrees should continue to grow significantly for at least the next four or five years. Undergraduate degree enrollments have grown in the past few years. Degree growth should begin in the near future with the duration of the growth period being dependent upon the extent of the period of enrollment growth. The continued decline in master's enrollments indicates that the number of master's degrees in MSE will begin to decline in a year or two. Thus, the MSE trend will depart substantially from that of engineering as a whole.

The data for first-year full-time undergraduate enrollments are noteworthy in several ways. The ratio of first-year to total full-time enrollment over the eight-year period shown is about 0.16 for MSE. For engineering as a whole the ratio for the same period is 0.28, a value that is more understandable considering a comparison of just one year to the entire four-year (nominally) program. Thus, a large fraction of the MSE bachelor's degree graduates enroll in engineering with the intent of studying another discipline. The corollary to this is that the number of MSE graduates is dependent upon the visibility of MSE departments and their efforts in recruiting students already enrolled in engineering.

Figure 6. Comparison of the fractions of degrees awarded to women in MSE and all of engineering.

Women

As shown in Figure 6, the fraction of degrees awarded to women in MSE is significantly higher than in engineering as a whole. With very few exceptions, this broad statement applies to bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees and covers a period of a third of a century. It is interesting to note that both the MSE and engineering data in Figure 6 for bachelor's degrees have an upward "bulge" from the mid-1970s through the 1980s, the period during which total undergraduate degrees reached a maximum. It can be concluded that the maximum was due in part to the significant increases in the enrollment of women during this period.

Enrollment data now indicate that the period of growth in the fraction of undergraduate degrees awarded to women may be coming to an end. This new trend appears to apply to engineering disciplines, like MSE, that have been favored by women.

Ethnicity and Foreign Nationals

The fractions of MSE and engineering degrees awarded to African Americans, Hispanic Americans, Native Americans, Asian Americans and foreign nationals are shown in Table II. Undergraduate and graduate degree fractions are included for the period from AY1988-89 through AY2003-04.

African Americans. MSE fractions for undergraduate degrees are significantly lower than those for engineering. It is noteworthy that both MSE and engineering data indicate a decline over the last five years. Graduate degree fractions are essentially the same. However, like the undergraduate data, declines in the fractions for both master's and doctoral degrees have occurred since AY1998-99.

Hispanic Americans. With very few exceptions, MSE and engineering fractions for undergraduate and graduate degrees are essentially the same. In addition, increasing trends have been maintained for the last two decades. (The data for engineering include two universities in Puerto Rico.)

Native Americans. Small numbers and data scatter interfere somewhat with definitive statements regarding this group. In general, the data indicate that MSE and engineering data do not differ significantly. It may be possible to discern slight increasing trends in both the MSE and engineering data, but such conclusions would be difficult to defend.

Asian Americans. MSE fractions are slightly, but consistently, less than engineering fractions for bachelor's degrees. Both sets of data show a generally increasing trend for the past two decades. For both master's and doctoral degrees, the fractions are about the same and are much larger than those of the other three ethnic groups. Long-term trends are not clear in spite of the fact that the substantial quantity of data should minimize statistical scatter.

Foreign Nationals. The fractions for bachelor's degrees in MSE and engineering have remained essentially constant for the last two decades. The average for MSE (3.7%) is about half that for engineering (7.9%). The MSE and engineering fractions for graduate degrees are essentially the same and have grown for the last two decades. For MSE in AY2003-04, the fractions were 44.8% for master's degrees and 57.9% for doctoral degrees.

Table II. Degrees awarded to African, Hispanic, Native and Asian Americans and foreign nationals.

Research Expenditures

Annual research expenditures in engineering colleges have grown from about $810 million in AY1980-81 to about $4.4 billion in AY2002-03. These continuing annual increases have fueled the growth of engineering graduate programs and degrees. Through the 1980s, the rates of increase in the annual expenditures in the individual engineering disciplines were about the same. In the 1990s, new engineering disciplines emerged and grew. New funding patterns, and therefore expenditure increases, were the result.

Research expenditures since AY1980-81 in ten engineering disciplines are shown in Figure 7. It is important to note that universities typically report these data as engineering departmental totals rather than engineering discipline totals. For example, it should be expected that some expenditures for computer science and computer engineering are included in the electrical engineering totals and that some aerospace engineering expenditures are included in the mechanical engineering totals.

In the 1980s, most of the disciplines exhibited essentially the same growth rates. Beginning in the 1990s, growth rates varied widely among the disciplines, with the emerging disciplines generally having the highest growth rates.

Figure 7. Annual research expenditures of ten engineering disciplines.

Of the almost two dozen disciplines in the surveys from which the Figure 7 data were obtained, MSE had the lowest growth rate (2% annually) beginning in the 1990s. Figure 8 provides another view of the MSE research expenditure situation. Beginning in AY1990-91, MSE research expenditures decreased from 7.7% of total engineering expenditures to 5.5% in AY2002-03.

There is no reason to suspect that the minimal annual increases in MSE research expenditures stem from a loss in interest by funding agencies in materials research. In fact, it should be expected that the overall and continuing importance of materials in evolving technologies would result in above-average increases in funding.

Could this dilemma have developed from the success of the "materials community" in defining the broad reach of materials in technological advancement? In other words, has the "materials community" spread the importance of materials to the various engineering disciplines? If so, the fraction of the available funding for MSE departments would be restricted.

Figure 8. MSE fraction of total engineering research expenditures.

Summary

At the international level, China, Japan and probably Russia are graduating more undergraduate engineers than the US. With the predicted decline in bachelor's degrees awarded in the US beginning around AY2006-07, South Korea will move ahead of the US. In terms of undergraduate degrees per capita, the US total is surpassed by those of twenty-four other countries. The US leads all other countries in the awarding of engineering doctoral degrees, but 58% of these are presented to foreign nationals. In terms of doctorates per capita, the US total is exceeded by those of fifteen other countries.

MSE undergraduate degrees have not followed the increasing trend of engineering as a whole. MSE enrollments, however, have been increasing in the last few years. Bachelor's degrees should begin to increase soon and the duration of growth will be determined by the length of the period of enrollment growth.

MSE master's degrees have increased modestly in the past two years. These increases were not as dramatic as those for engineering. However, MSE master's degree enrollments are still declining and degrees should return to the long-term declining trend. Doctoral degrees have been increasing and should continue this growth in at least the near future based on rapidly increasing enrollments.

In both undergraduate and graduate programs, the fraction of degrees awarded to women in MSE has exceeded the fraction for engineering for a third of a century. Currently, 31% of MSE bachelor's degrees are awarded to women. Enrollment data indicate that the growth in the fraction of engineering degrees awarded to women may be ending. The onset of this new trend will apply to essentially all engineering disciplines, even those that have been favored in the past by women.

The fractions of MSE undergraduate and graduate degrees awarded to most ethnic groups have been essentially the same as for engineering. The only exception is for African Americans where the fraction is about half that for engineering. In addition, the MSE and engineering fractions have declined over the past five years for African Americans.
The rate of growth in annual research expenditures in MSE departments has declined significantly since AY1990-91. The average annual increase during this period has been 2%, the lowest of all of the engineering disciplines for which expenditure data are available.

Acknowledgment

This paper was presented at MS&T'05 in Pittsburgh, PA in September 2005. The paper was made available to meeting attendees in the Conference Proceedings. The Minerals, Metals and Materials Society (TMS) has kindly granted permission to make the paper available on the Engineering Trends Web site.