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Introduction
In AY1998-99, bachelor's degrees in engineering reached a minimum of
62,500. Through AY2003-04, the total reached 76,003, a growth of 21.6%.
Computer science and engineering (including all computer science
programs in universities with engineering programs) awarded 8104
bachelor's degrees in AY1998-99 and 17,644 bachelor's degrees in
AY2003-04, an increase of 9540 or 54.1%. Thus, 71% of the total growth
in engineering degrees from AY1998-99 through AY2003-04 was in computer
science and engineering (termed "computer' throughout this report).
Computer science and engineering began to fare poorly near the end of
the 1990 decade. Relative undergraduate enrollments ("computer" fraction
of engineering) began to decline in the late 1990s and total
undergraduate enrolments began to decline in the early 2000s. Data now
show that graduate enrollments are being effected.
This report focuses on past trends and attempts to form a basis for
what might be anticipated in the near future.
Computer Science and Engineering Enrollments
The graph below shows the decline in computer undergraduate
enrollments in recent years following the previous period of phenomenal
growth that resulted in a maximum in Fall 2001.
It is noteworthy that full-time, part-time and first-year enrollments
all reached a maximum in Fall 2001. Normally, new trends in full-time
undergraduate enrollments are preceded by new trends in first-year
enrollments. The time lag between these two measures is usually about
two years. Thus, whatever prompted the variation in first-year
enrollments affected simultaneously the enrollments of upper-class
students in computer programs as well.
A few universities are experiencing very large declines in
undergraduate computer enrollments. Several universities have had 50%
declines in full-time enrollments and almost 70% declines in first-year
enrollments since Fall 2001.
Changing preferences of undergraduate engineering students and high
school students enrolling in engineering were clear prior to Fall 2001.
The graph below shows the relative enrollment data (computer as a
fraction of total engineering) for the period covered by the graph
above.
Although the relative full-time enrollments reached a maximum in Fall
2001, first-year relative enrollments reached a maximum two years
earlier and part-time relative enrollments in computer have declined for
almost a decade.
Master's degree enrollments in computer reached maxima for full-time
and part-time students in Fall 2002 and Fall 2003, respectively, as
shown in the graph below. Both full-time and part-time doctoral
enrollments in computer have continued to increase. However, the current
decline in master's enrollments should begin to impact substantially
doctoral enrollments in a year or two. The slight decrease in the rate
of growth of full-time doctoral enrollments shown for Fall 2004 might
indicate the onset of a new trend. Fall 2005 enrollment data (available
in six to eight months) will define this matter more clearly.
The graph below of relative graduate enrollments indicates that
preferences for master's degree programs in computer have declined since
Fall 2001. In addition, the long-term increasing preference for doctoral
programs in computer has now ceased.
Computer Science and Engineering Degrees
The graph below indicates that bachelor's and master's degrees
awarded to computer students have continued to increase. However, the
AY2003-04 data indicate the anticipated decline in the rate of growth.
Doctoral degrees continue to increase, but the increase from AY2002-03
to AY2003-04 was only nineteen degrees.
The graph below of relative numbers of undergraduate and graduate
degrees awarded to computer students also indicates a "softening" in the
growth rates in AY2003-04. Degree data for AY2004-05 (available in two
or three months) are expected to show declines in both bachelor's and
master's degrees based upon the enrollment data provided previously in
this report.
Computer Science and Engineering Faculty
It is typically found that a large time lag exists between increasing
enrollment trends and the hiring of additional faculty. For example, the
acceleration of growth in undergraduate computer enrollments began in
the early 1990s. The second graph below indicates that significant
faculty growth did not occur until the late 1990s. Undergraduate
enrollments began to decline in Fall 2002, but the number of computer
faculty continued to increase through Fall 2004 (which probably will be
the maximum).
The ratio of full-time computer undergraduates to faculty was 22 in
Fall 1980 and increased to 30 in Fall 1982. The ratio declined to 13 in
Fall 1989 and increased to 47 in Fall 2001. In Fall 2004 the ratio was
22, slightly above the overall engineering ratio of 17. Continuing
decreases in undergraduate computer enrollments are highly probable
considering the current pattern of rapid decline.
Thus, even if faculty growth ends,
the computer student-faculty ratio should decrease to its lowest value
in a quarter of a century.
Summary
Over 70% of the growth in undergraduate engineering degrees since the
minimum in AY1998-99 resulted from growth in the number of degrees
awarded in computer science and engineering. Full-time undergraduate
computer enrollments declined 18.5% from Fall 2001 through Fall 2004 and
the rate of decline has increased annually.
Master's degree enrollments began to decline in Fall 2003 and the
rate of decline is increasing annually.
During the current period of enrollment decline, the number computer
faculty has increased. Even if faculty growth ends, undergraduate
student-faculty ratios should reach their lowest level in a quarter of a
century.
Acknowledgments
The undergraduate and graduate enrollment data used in this study
originated from the annual surveys of the Engineering Workforce
Commission of the American Association of Engineering Societies.
Engineering faculty data originated from the annual surveys of the
American Society for Engineering Education. Engineering Trends
acknowledges the efforts of these organizations in providing credible
data and expresses its gratitude for their services to the engineering
profession. Persons seeking further information about their surveys and
the availability of survey data should visit the AAES/EWC Web site (www.aaes.org)
and the ASEE Web site (www.asee.org).
Footnotes
Engineering Trends data are compiled mainly from information
submitted by universities to the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the
very rare occasions where errors in data appear, Engineering Trends
corrects the error, if possible, or deletes the data if the error is
large enough to alter significantly the trend of the university or the
US total.
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